"To what extent is overpopulation a problem in the third world? Evaluate responses from UN population agencies, economists and from at least one Christian church"

Synopsis

This essay begins with a brief historical overview of the growth of the world's population and a description of the current situation. Concerns about population growth influenced by the dire predictions of writers such as Malthus and Erlich are introduced leading up to an description of some responses and various population control measures introduced by governments or promoted by United Nations agencies such as UNFPA. The emphasis on birth control and family planning is particularly noted.

UN predictions of future population levels are then examined in the light of recent research regarding emerging trends of the rate of population increase and the theory of demographic transition. The concerns raised by some about the problem of an ageing population are also mentioned.

The results of recent research into the reasons for fertility decline are then presented followed by a discussion of the emerging consensus regarding the links between poverty, development and population, leading to the agreed programme of action needed to address the issues.

The contribution of Catholic Church to the population debate is then discussed. Finally the need for the developed world to address issues of consumption, trade and finance in assisting the countries of the third world in the task of ensuring that all people are able to enjoy a decent living standard whilst building a sustainable future for our planet is emphasized.

Essay

For most of human history the world's population grew slowly. A relatively high death rate due to factors such as disease, malnutrition, plague and war meant that it took an estimated 36,000 years up to 1650 for the population of the globe to double. Today, at current growth rates the world population would double in 53 years. [1] In 2002 the United Nations estimated that approximately seventy-seven million people each year were being added to the 6.3 billion that made up the current world population, with almost all of the projected growth predicted to take place in developing countries. [2] Moreover given the large numbers of young people now beginning to reach child-bearing age in less developed countries the annual increase in total population will continue at least for several decades. [3] The dramatic decline in death rates, which is largely due to advances in technology, medicine and improved sanitation, has been the major factor in accounting for the rapid population growth of the last century. [4] Whilst people everywhere are now often living longer and healthier lives it is nevertheless obvious that poverty, hunger and misery are still widespread in the world, particularly in the third world, and many would argue that overpopulation is a significant cause.

In his Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798, Thomas Malthus gloomily predicted that as limited resources such as the land available for food production could not keep pace with a rapidly growing population, famine and poverty were inevitable without restraining population growth. As Malthus failed to take into account the impact of technology in raising the productivity of available land, his dire predictions did not eventuate, [5] however his ideas persisted and were given new impetus in the latter half of the twentieth centuries through popular writers such as Paul Erlich 'The Population Bomb' (1960) and 'The Population Explosion' (1990).

Erlich and other neo-Malthusians share two central beliefs
First, that the earth is approaching or has even exceeded its capacity to feed and support its human population decently. Secondly that population growth causes under-development and poverty. [6]
The looming crisis that was again predicted together with the increasing concern for the environment required a response.

For many governments and non-governmental agencies a primary way of addressing the problems of poverty and environmental degradation has been through population control measures. One of the more extreme and well-publicized solutions was the 'one child policy' introduced by the Chinese government in 1979. At various times the Indian government has also attempted to stem population growth through financial incentives, penalties and an unsuccessful forced sterilization program that was introduced in the 1970's. [7]. At the international level the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has strongly encouraged family planning and contraception as a means of population control. Since its establishment in 1969 UNFPA has supplied over $6 billion to developing countries for population and reproductive health programs. Its stated mission is to
"help ensure universal access to reproductive health, including family planning and sexual health, to all couples and individuals on or before the year 2015; to support population and development strategies that enable capacity-building in population programming; to promote awareness of population and development issues and to advocate for the mobilization of the resources and political will necessary to accomplish its areas of work" [8]

Contraception is seen as an easy and direct method of reducing population growth. It is argued that not only does it reduce family size thus allowing a greater proportion of resources to be allocated to each child, thereby improving its opportunity for education, healthcare and nutrition, but it also empowers women by giving them reproductive control. By deferring pregnancy it is claimed, women are better able to take up opportunities for education, employment, and social and political advancement. Birth control can therefore be seen as a long-term investment towards political reform and greater protection for women�s rights because as more women enter the workforce and political system, their voices are far more likely to be heard, and their concerns far more likely to be addressed.

Nevertheless despite the apparent widespread acceptance of these views, there have been many voices that have consistently questioned both the effectiveness of this strategy and the ethics underlying promotion of population control programs. Others have questioned whether overpopulation is really a problem at all. Predictions about the population level that the earth could ultimately support vary widely, depending on what assumptions are made and the quality of life that is deemed acceptable. Some economists would even argue that a population approaching 40 billion was sustainable and the current consensus is that the world's population will stabilize at a figure well below this level. [9]

In fact United Nations forward projections of the world population have been consistently revised downward. The 2002 revision estimates a population of 8.9 billion in 2050 [10] down from the estimates of 10.8 billion in 1996 and 9.7 billion in 1998 [11] These revisions have been made in the light of the continued decline in fertility that has began in much of the third world around 1970. This decline appears to follow the pattern which emerged in Western Europe at the start of the twentieth century and which has seen fertility levels drop to near replacement levels. Economists and demographers have identified three stages in the pattern of population growth of the countries of the developed world that they have termed the demographic transition. The long period of high fertility rates and high death rates was followed by a period characterized by a continued high fertility rate but combined with a low death rate. The decline of fertility rates to replacement levels represents stage III of this process. Despite some questioning of the validity of the comparison, many believe that the countries of the less developed world can also follow this pattern, but only provided that the underlying reasons for high fertility rates are correctly understood and addressed. [12]

Before examining the factors that contribute to high fertility rates, it is perhaps important to note that some economists would argue that continued population growth is desirable as a means of stimulating economic development and increasing agricultural output. [13] Some would also argue that a long term decline of the fertility rate to below replacement level with the consequent ageing of the population, may be potentially more of a problem than the threat of overpopulation. Certainly the Vatican expressed some concern about this issue in the Address of the Holy See Delegation at the 32nd Session of the UN Commission on Population and Development in 1999:- "In light of recent demographic projections released by the United Nations Population Division, the aging of the world's population calls for immediate attention and action"[14]

Nevertheless it would be universally accepted that, at least in developing countries at the present time, rapid population growth hinders development by placing extreme pressure on resources and that the effect of that pressure falls most heavily on the poor. Given that this is the case, the question is often asked why families continue to produce children when they are unable to provide adequately for them?

Large families among poor people can be at least partly explained in economic terms. Most Third World societies do not have social security, they engage in labour intensive activities that require many helping hands, and they have high child and infant mortality rates. Having many children protects a family financially and provides security in old age. Thus it can be argued that rather than overpopulation being the cause of underdevelopment it is the plight of poor families that is the root cause of any "population problem".

Research has now shown that birthrates among the very poor are likely to fall when a number of related issues are addressed. Increasing family income, either through direct employment or through the redistribution of wealth in society lessens the economic importance of having more children. Increasing educational opportunities are important in enabling parents to invest in an increased potential quality of life for their offspring, but also in providing the opportunity for women to engage in non-agricultural wage employment which may be a more attractive economic option than child rearing. Improved education for women in areas of health and nutrition will also contribute to a decline in infant mortality which in turn will lessen the number of births necessary to ensure enough children survive and the development of a social security system will reduce the dependence on the family network. [15]

It is important to note that at the macro level the distribution of wealth in society has a more significant influence on fertility than the level of wealth (as measured by the GNP for example). The state of Kerala in India provides a good illustration of this. Kerala is one of the poorest states in India with a population density three times the national average, but it also has a very low birth rate. This can be attributed to the fact that as poor as they are, the poorest people enjoy a certain level of economic security. The caste system is not as strong as in other parts of India and a system of government-run fair-price shops sells basic food items at controlled prices. Infant mortality rate, life expectancy and the death rate, all commonly used indicators of poverty, are significantly better than in most poorer countries and in India as a whole. Literacy and education levels are also far superior to other states, particularly for women. [16]

A significant outcome of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) conference in Cairo, and held under the auspices of the United Nations, was the consensus reached in regard to the links between poverty, development and population levels.
Efforts to slow population growth, reduce poverty, achieve economic progress, improve environmental protection and reduce unsustainable consumption and production patterns are mutually reinforcing. Sustained economic growth within the context of sustainable development is essential to eradicate poverty. Eradicating poverty will contribute to slowing population growth and to achieving early population stabilization. [17]
Thus whilst organizations such as the UNFPA continue to place emphasis on family planning measures, there is perhaps a growing recognition that the answer to high population growth is not forced contraception, family planning, or sterilization programs, but rather in addressing the circumstances that dictate poverty. The wide availability of family planning facilities and contraceptive devices alone will not influence the rate at which families adopt contraception. If a family perceives that having another child is in their best interests, evidence shows that it will do so. Social and cultural factors also influence birth rates and the extent to which contraception is likely to be taken up. A cultural preference for sons over daughters or a traditional male dominance in sexual relationships and family planning decisions are just two examples of such factors.

The Catholic Church identified population as one of the �problems of special urgency� in the pastoral constitution on The Church in the Modern World promulgated by the Second Vatican Council in 1965. However in responding to the perceived need to radically reduce population growth the Church cautioned against 'solutions contradicting the moral law' and re-emphasised its teaching that 'in view of the inalienable right to marry and beget children, the question of how many children should be born belongs to the honest judgment of parents' [18] and has consistently upheld that view since then both in its official documents and in its ongoing involvement in the population debate within the United Nations. The Vatican's concern about solutions contradicting the moral law applied particularly to abortion which it suspected some family planning programs were promoting as a means of birth control. [19] Following intensive lobbying by the Vatican and others who shared its concern, the ICPD Cairo Conference in its Programme of Action rejected draft proposals advocating a more liberal stance on the issue when it stated, "In no case should abortion be promoted as a method of family planning"[20]

The Church's strong stand in defence of its teachings on human sexuality, particularly in regard to abortion, artificial contraception and parental and family rights has meant that it is often viewed as an obstacle in the battle to address the misery that continues to afflict much of the developing world. Yet whilst the Church has vigorously defended the right of parents to determine the number of children in their families it has at the same time stressed the need for parents to act responsibly.
"although we do not believe that people are poor and hungry primarily because they have large families, the Church fully supports the need for all to exercise responsible parenthood."[21]

The Church has also been at the forefront in pressing the issue of development for the Third World for several decades. The encyclical of Paul VI Populorum Progressio (1967) in particular was largely devoted to this theme � a theme that was continued in later encyclicals of Paul and those of his successor John Paul II. The Church therefore would find that most of the UN Programme of Action was consistent with its own position.

In the debate on population, the issue of consumption in the developed world is frequently downplayed or ignored. Some would see that concerns about population levels and population control programs in developing countries as having more to do with protecting first world living standards than alleviating the plight of the poor. In a world where 20% of the population in the developed nations, consume 86% of the worlds resources, where millions in the developing world are undernourished whilst obesity levels and the amount of money spent on items such as pet food soar in the developed world, [22] it would seem that to seek solutions to the problems of poverty and overpopulation by action in the developing world is to address only part of the problem.

As noted earlier a consensus between economists, demographers and governments has emerged as to the most effective way of ensuring a sustainable future population for the earth. In brief, the solution lies in ensuring the eradication of absolute poverty in developing countries, in addressing inequality within countries and between countries, in providing more food, better diets, improved nutrition and health services especially clean water, sanitation, medical services and through education and increased job opportunities (especially for women). [23]

In bringing about these changes the developed world has a significant responsibility to address its own lifestyle and patterns of consumption, to provide an appropriate level of aid and address the financial and trade arrangements that disadvantage developing nations. There is also a continued place for the provision of education and access to family planning programs that encourage responsible parenting as well as economic incentives to reduce families without resorting to coercion. [24]

In its mission of proclaiming the gospel the Church is called to stand with the poor and marginalized of the world. In its teaching the Church has also consistently advocated that the rights and dignity of the human person are paramount. The solutions to the related problems of poverty, population and development are broadly consistent with the core of its teaching. Given its standing and influence in the world the Church is thus in a position to contribute significantly towards a resolution of this most significant issue facing mankind.

FOOTNOTES

[1] Todaro, Michael P & Smith, Stephen C
Economic Development
Harlow, Pearson Education, Eighth edition 2003 p262

[2] United Nations Population Division
World Population Prospects The 2002 Revision
p6, retrieved from Internet on 27/9/04 at http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm

[3] Todaro & Smith; Economic Development, pp269-272

[4] Todaro & Smith; Economic Development, p263

[5] Todaro & Smith; Economic Development, pp275, 278

[6] Duncan, Bruce
World Population - Cause for Alarm?
Catholic Social Justice Series No.25 Australian Catholic Social Justice Council North Sydney 1995; pp10-11

[7] Todaro & Smith; Economic Development, pp296

[8] United Nations Population Fund
retrieved from internet on 27/9/04 at http://www.unfpa.org/about/mission.htm

[9] Duncan, Bruce; "World Population - Cause for Alarm?" pp11-12

[10] United Nations Population Division; World Population Prospects The 2002 Revision, p6

[11] United Nations Population Division; Long Range World Population Projections based on the 1998 Revision, p2

[12] Todaro & Smith; Economic Development, p266

[13] Todaro & Smith; Economic Development, pp287-288

[14] Roman Curia, Secretariat of State, Archive
Address of the Holy See Delegation at the 32nd Session of the UN Commission on Population and Development (March 27, 1999)
retrieved from internet on 1/10/04 http://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/secretariat_state/documents/rc_seg-st_doc_19990327_onu-population-develop_en.htm

[15] Todaro & Smith; Economic Development, p284

[16] Anup Shah
Environmental Issues - Population
retrieved from internet 1/10/04 http://www.globalissues.org/

[17] United Nations Population Fund; Summary of ICPD Programme of Action, Ch3

[18] Gaudium et Spes 87 in Catholic Social Thought - The Documentary Heritage
David J. O�Brien, & Thomas A. Shannon, (eds)
(New York: Orbis Books, 1992)

[19] Duncan, Bruce; "World Population - Cause for Alarm?" p24

[20] United Nations Population Fund;
Summary of ICPD Programme of Action, 8.25

[21] Economic Justice For All (Statement of US Catholic Bishops 1986) #286,
in Catholic Social Thought - The Documentary Heritage
David J. O�Brien, & Thomas A. Shannon, (eds) (New York: Orbis Books, 1992)

[22] United Nations Human Development Report 1998
retrieved from internet on 1/10/04 at http://hdr.undp.org/reports/global/1998/en/

[23] Todaro & Smith; Economic Development, p292

[24] ibid

Bibliography

Boserup, Ester
Economic and Demographic Relationships in Development
Baltimore, John Hopkins University Press, 1990

Duncan, Bruce
"World Population - Cause for Alarm?"
Catholic Social Justice Series No.25
Australian Catholic Social Justice Council North Sydney 1995

Kasun, Jacqueline
The War Against Population
San Francisco, Ignatius Press, 1988

O'Brien, David J & Shannon, Thomas A. (eds)
Catholic Social Thought � The Documentary Heritage
New York: Orbis Books, 1992.

Roman Curia, Secretariat of State,
Retrieved from internet 1/10/04 http://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/secretariat_state/index.htm

Shah, Anup
Environmental Issues - Population
Retrieved from internet 1/10/04 http://www.globalissues.org/

Todaro Michael P & Smith Stephen C
Economic Development
Harlow, Pearson Education, Eighth edition 2003

United Nations Population Division
Retrieved from internet 1/10/04 http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm

United Nations Population Fund
Retrieved from internet 1/10/04 http://www.unfpa.org/index.htm

United Nations Population Information Network
Retrieved from internet 1/10/04 http://www.un.org/popin/

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